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Market Timing Advisors Blog This is where we post random thoughts about the stock market as well as other items of interest. They will appear when they appear. No set schedule. Some may be reprints of others' work, but most will be original. We hope you find it informative.
Wednesday December 17, 2008 10:01 am CST This is an options expiration week so traders will be watching the U.S. dollar to see if it can remain above its' 50 day moving average. It has moved into overbought territory once again. Todays action is to the downside, which is typical in mid-week when options expire. The important thing is for the market to end friday, higher to confirm yesterdays big move. It would be a nice "Santa Clause" rally for the market. Wednesday Aug. 6th,2008 12:56 CDT We like what we are seeing right now in the market. If it continues a little while longer we will have a trend change. As the price of oil falls, so will the price of gasoline, albiet, it will take a little longer. This, if it continues, will help the economy and therefor the stock market. Keep a close watch.
Friday Aug. 1st, 2008 10:12 CDT The market's volatility certainly continued yesterday for the 4th triple-digit daily Dow move of the week - so far. Two up and two down. And now the Dow is up only 8 points (0.1%) for the week, and the S&P 500 up less than 1%. Today is starting out to the down side and may cause the market to be another lossing week.
Tuesday July 29th, 2008 The Bulls and the Bears are really like a Rocky movie the past four days. 200 points + ups and downs creates tremendous volitility and it has to break one way or the other soon. Which ever way you are leaning, be cautious because it can be rewarding if you are right but can really hurt if you are wrong.
Wednesday June 25, 2008 3:13pm CDT The Fed left interest rates unchanged which should indicate that it is likely that the next rate change will be to the up-side. If so, mortgage rates and credit card rates will start going up soon. Rates go up when the Fed is worried about inflation. Rates go down when the Fed is concerned the economy. At this time they find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Either way, there will be problems created by a change either way. The dollar should gain some strength against the Euro and that will help bring down the price of oil.....Maybe.
Monday June23, 2008 12:40pm CDT The Dow closed down 3.8% for the past week, and is now down 9.3% since the rally peak on May 2. It's now down 10.7% for the year so far, and has lost 16.4% since its peak last October.
Thursday June 19,2008 10:12am CDT As usual, around options expiration time, we should expect to see some choppiness in the market over the next two trading days. There is a good chance that we will see another rally attempt, but it will be difficult to dig out of the hole we are in for the week.
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The following story was written by John Wilen AP Business Writer after the cloe of the market Monday 6.09.08. Gas pushes above $4, oil falls on Paulson comments NEW YORK (AP) -- Retail gas prices rose further above a national average of $4 Monday, and are likely to keep rising as distributors and retailers hike prices in response to last week's unprecedented oil price rally.
Oil futures, meanwhile, retreated after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he wouldn't rule out intervention to stabilize the dollar -- boosting the greenback against the euro -- and after Saudi Arabia said it would call for a meeting to discuss crude prices that it called unjustifiably high. At the pump, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas rose 1.8 cents overnight to a record $4.023, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices first moved above $4 nationally on Sunday, though they've been higher than that in many parts of the country for weeks. If oil prices remain near $139 a barrel, last week's record high, gas prices will likely rise another dime in coming days, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J. "The numbers do have some catching up to do," Kloza said. "There's a bit of a tape delay that happens with gasoline." AAA spokesman Geoff Sundstrom thinks prices could rise another 2 to 3 cents. Consumers are cutting back on their consumption of gas in response to the high prices, but gasoline producers have little choice but to keep raising prices when the cost of their chief raw material -- crude oil -- rises. Friday's jump of nearly $11 in oil prices put new life into gas prices, which had appeared to be topping out. High fuel prices are also causing a shift in consumers' car-buying habits; General Motors Corp. announced plans last week to close four pickup truck and SUV plants, saying high fuel prices have cut sales. At today's prices, it costs nearly $91 to fill a Ford Explorer, up from $70 a year ago. At 14 miles per gallon in city driving conditions, and 20 mpg on the highway, a person who drives that Explorer 25 to 40 miles to and from work -- not to mention chauffeuring kids around -- has to gas up a couple of times a week, at least. At $150 a barrel -- the Morgan Stanley price prediction that helped ignite Friday's oil rally -- gas would cost about $4.40 a gallon, Kloza said. Gas prices often peak around Memorial Day, then retreat over the course of the summer. But this is far from a normal year. Oil prices have been marching steadily higher since last fall, and occasional price corrections of $10, or more, have been followed by rapid rebounds to new heights. Last week, oil prices rose nearly 14 percent in two days, trading as high as $139.12 a barrel, after slumping more than $13 from a previous record high. On Monday, light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $4.19 to settle at $134.35 a barrel in volatile trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In an interview on CNBC Monday, Paulson said he would not rule out the possibility of intervening to stabilize the dollar, though he declined to speculate about what the government might do. The dollar strengthened against the euro on Paulson's comments, sending oil lower. Many investors buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the greenback weakens. But on Monday, the effect reversed; the dollar gained ground, making oil less effective as an inflation hedge. Also, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive to investors overseas. Oil's sharp jump last week began Thursday, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the bank could increase interest rates in July to counter rising inflation. That sent the dollar falling against the euro. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said Monday it will call for a meeting of oil producing countries and consumers to discuss soaring oil prices. Information and Culture Minister Iyad Madani said the kingdom will work with OPEC to "guarantee the availability of oil supplies now and in the future." He also said the current price of oil is unjustified. Also Monday, one of the factors that underpinned Friday's rally -- an Israeli cabinet minister's comment that his nation might attack Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program -- appeared to dissipate over the weekend as Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert distanced himself from the comments and other officials noted that the minister, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, had not been expressing official government policy. But other factors support high oil prices. An explosion last week at a natural gas production facility in Australia has boosted demand for diesel by that country's mining sector, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn. In Nigeria, a major U.S. oil supplier, a strike later this week could take 450,000 barrels in daily oil supplies off the market, Armstrong said. Both events highlight how tight oil supplies are. Some analysts see warning signs in Friday's bold oil price jump. "It was a freakish oil market Friday as the market's worst fears -- some real and some imagined -- exploded into a rhapsody of wild buying," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago, in a research note. The $10.75 move had some of the hallmarks of a "blow-off top," Armstrong said, or a rapid, explosive run-up in prices that's followed by steep declines. Still, it's far to early to tell for sure, he added. "You never know you've been in a bubble until it's gone," Armstrong said. In other Nymex trading Monday, July gasoline futures fell 15.4 cents to settle at $3.394 a gallon, and July heating oil futures fell 9.7 cents to settle at $3.877 a gallon. July natural gas futures fell 8.9 cents to settle at $12.604 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, July Brent crude fell $3.78 to settle at $133.91 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Associated Press Writer Pablo Gorondi in Budapest, Hungary, and AP Business Writer Malcolm Foster in Bangkok, Thailand, contributed to this report.
Tuesday June 3, 2008 11:27am CDT The Dollar is again stronger against the Euro this morning. Oil of course is down and the market is up. That's the way we like it. Let's keep it going this way.
Tuesday May 20, 2008 11:20am CDT Today the June futures contract expires and will roll over to the July contract. This many times causes some degree of volatility from the money moving out of one contract and into another.
Wednesday April 16, 2008 11:00am CDT The Dollar Index is down a steep 0.91% so far this session. There are concerns that the European Union is not going to cut its interest rates in the near term. This will cause the Dollar to continue going down, therefore making prices go up. The Dollar is down 6.9% in 2008 and is down 13% compared to one year ago.
Tuesday April 15,2008 2:30pm CDT It is starting to look like a convoy of 18 wheelers coming down a steep mountain grade with no brakes working. We will never get out of the funk with what oil is doing. The news guys are talking WW III over food shortages. We are using corn to drive on.
Thursday April 3, 2008 11:30am CDT Tomorrow morning's monthly jobs report is important to the very short-term market direction. As we have said before, the monthly jobs numbers are the most difficult for analysts to forecast. They therefore often come in with a surprise in one direction or the other. They hold the record for causing more triple-digit knee-jerk reaction moves in one direction or the other than any other set of economic numbers.
Friday March 28, 2008 1:21pm CDT As has been the case for some number of weeks now, the market is trying get off dead center and either go up or go down. One thing is sure, there is not enough money in the entire world to be able to do half of all the things the pols are promising us once we elect them into office. Been there before, 18 times, has not happened yet and it won't happen this time either. They all are laywers and millionaiers and yet they pretend to be doing it to help the poor folks. Where were they when the Mortgage Brookers were cheating the poor on giving them loans they could not afford. One of the biggest offenders ran the scam for Countrywide and was just hired as the man to run the same show at Bank America. His pay? Would you believe $28,000,000 a year. How many little people does he have to screw just to break even?
Tuesday, March 11, 2008 8:45:pm MST After these big reversals, like we had today, we tend to give some back before the big boys put money to work. I, for one, liked the fact that we cleared the 1310 level in the S&P, but I'll be even more impressed if we never violate that level over the next few days. The 50 day moving average at 1363 is the next logical takeout target on the way up and that will serve as confirmation of this move. We'll also need some real buying to get us there, not just short-covering which certainly contributed to this today.
Monday, March 10 2008 5:40:pm MST We are seeing the last of the weak money throwing in the towel in this oversold market. It is about ready to do a "dead cat bounce" very soon.
Friday, February 29, 2008 10:51:am CST We keep getting these volatile trading sessions that are range-bound. The trading is inside the range of S&P 1387 as overhead resistance and low of S&P 1330 as support. Overbought conditions, oil prices, the dollar, and any bond insurer bailout news will dictate the swings.
Thursday, February 21, 2008 1:30:pm CST It seems that we can't break out of the rut we have been in for quite some time now. Just when you think it is going one way, it reverses course and heads the other way. About 80% of the daily volume is from 10 of the largest Wall Street firms. Could they be acting in concert to make money in their own accounts? With all the billions they lost in the sub-prime arena, they sure need to make some profits somewhere. Least we forget, they are the smart ones.???
Thursday, January 31, 2008 11:am CST Yesterday the Fed cut another 50 bps. and the market went down. Today, we had several government reports that were bad, and the market went up on the news. Sometimes it's hard to understand why the market does what it does.
Monday, January 28. 2008 10:00am CST For the week, the Dow gained +2.3%, the S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, and the Russell 2000 +2.9%. Year-to-date, the Dow is now down -7.9%, the S&P 500 -9.4%, Nasdaq -12.3%, and the Russell 2000 -10.1%.
Friday, January 25, 2008 11:30am CST Looks like it will be one of those days where the market will not be able to advance for the third day in row. You can usually depend on a "don't leave any money on the table" over the week end kind of mind set in this type of market. The past two days could be a "dead cat bounce". There is still way too much danger in this market. You may be able to find some good quality stocks that have been hit hard but are still good stocks. If that's the case, and you've done your homework, go for it.
Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:00pm CST Only an hour left in the trading day and we are still up on the day. A good sign really after yesterdays dramatic turnaround of over six hundred points on the Dow. Now however, it begets the question; Did yesterday signal the bottom of the correction? History show many examples that would back up that kind of thinking. It will take a while longer to support that theroy.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 2:39pm CST With 20 minutes left in the trading day, the market look like an up day for a change. Don't get excited though, one day is not going to do much for this market. It is now offically a BEAR market.
Sunday, January 13, 2008 11:39am CST This is going to be a busy week with lots of economic reports being released along with it being the beginning of the earnings season for the 4th quarter. Add to this the fact that Investor Sentiment which stands now at over 58% negitive, is a strong contrary indicator. It is usually really good at identifying market bottoms. This is one of the main reasons we don't want to be short at this point.
Thursday, January 10, 2008 12:40pm CST The market is looking for direction. Up or down, which is it? Keep a close watch on the the SP500. Its support is around the 1400 mark where it previously went down to on 8/15/07. If it breaks this support level, then the next one is at 1372 which was set 3/2/07. Remember, these levels are called support on the way down. On the way back up they are called resistance points.
Monday, January 7, 2008 12:23pm CST Will todays rally be the end of year-end repositioning and the beginning of a climb back up, or just a short-term oversold bounce that should be sold into? We do not have clear evidence at present, so we will give it a little more time to ripen.
Thursday, January 3, 2008 10:08am CST I looked up the word "ugly" in the dictionary and there was a chart of yesterdays market. We always like to see the year get off to a good start with an up day, but that's not the way it usually goes. Looking at the SP500, you will find it has been up 36 times and down 44 times since 1929. The Dow has split right down the middle, 5 up and 5 down over the last 10 years. Many investors will wait to take profits until the new year, thus deferring the taxes due until the following year.
Monday, December 24, 2007 11:02am CST Fridays market action could be important from the standpoint that it was up nicely and on heavy volume. With about an hour to go in todays shortened session we are seeing another up day. Right now the odds are that this will again be an up week across the board.
Thursday, December 20, 2007 2:30pm CST The market is playing hard to get this week. Except for the NDX there is not much action going on. It has been a flatline day, it won't go up, and it won't go down. It is still above theAugust lows which gives hope for another leg up in short order. It appears that we are not getting the hoped for Santa rally.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007 1:23pm CST Yesterday was overkill. Eight out of ten analysts expected 1/4%. One out of ten expected 1/2% and one out of ten expected no change from the FOMC. A 1/4% was already priced into the market, so when the Fed announced only a 1/4 point, it was as if Santa forgot to leave anything under the tree. The market headed south and kept going. Down, down, down almost 300 points. It had been up 8 of the last ten sessions, so it was truly in an overbought condition. It is now in a very level headed point in time and could give us that much dreamed of Santa Claus rally.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007 11:24 am CST The price of oil has finally come down some, and still needs to go down more. Gas is down under $3 a gallon and Christmas is three weeks from yesterday. The market is up 1 1/2% across the board as we approach the noon hour and visions of a Santa Claus rally dance in our heads. Life is good !
Wednesday, November 28th, 2007 3:45pm CST It looks a lot like things may finally be comming together to be setting the market to sober itself up.The dollar is showing signs of some turnaround. The same for oil. What we need is just a few days to see if there is any followthrough.
Tuesday, November 27th, 2007 1:31pm CST The craziness continues unabated. This market is going up and down like a yoyo. We have been looking in every nook and cranny to try to find some answers to share with you. Some analysts have been telling folks to move some cash into the NDX because it has been the strongest of the indices. What they failed to point out was that the strength was due to only three stocks. That's right, three stocks; count 'em Apple - Research in Motion - and Google Those three stocks alone make up over 50% of the total gain in the NDX for the year. Whenever you get such a narrow number of stocks doing all the lifting, you know that something is not right. Just trying to get two days in a row to the upside has been impossible. These are far from normal times.
Tuesday, November 20th, 2007 10:21am The FOMC minutes at 2PM is today's big news event. The minutes will be under more scrutiny than normal due to Bernanke's promises to expand the Fed's forecasts to increase transparency. Fed funds futures are still showing a very high expectation (over 80%) for another rate cut at the December 11th meeting. One thing the bulls don't want to see today is a failure to hold on to its gains, and then to build on this morning's positive start. Needless to say, the FOMC minutes this afternoon will make or break the trading day. Volume should be lower across the board and even more so tomorrow and Friday. Low volume makes it easier for the market to be moved in either direction.
Friday, November 16, 2007 10:45 am CST The hope that yesterday's selloff was a successful test of Monday's lows (S&P 1440), the high expectation that the market will rally during Thanksgiving week from oversold conditions, and today's option expiration are having positive influences. Also helping out are some positive news from tech leaders Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Garmin (GRMN). The market could end on the up side for the week with just a little bit of help. We will know in about four hours.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007 4:50 pm CST Some folks have asked about the safety of the money market funds at Rydex Funds. The have only one and that is a Govenment Money Market fund where all of the money is backed by instruments of the U. S. Government. If you have money market funds elsewhere, you may wat to check and see if they have a government fund to switch into. We are not saying that money market funds are in danger, but if you want to play it safe, and it never hurts to do so, it's better to be safe than sorry.
Thursday, November 8, 2007 12:57 pm CST When the SP 500 broke thru 1490 and closed at 1475 we knew that we would see a tough day in the market today. The 1490 mark was an important support point. It is currently down another 18 points with 2 hours to go till the close. The next support point is at 1432 and another important one at 1407.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007 12:46 pm CST It finally looks like the reality of the current conditions is starting to work its way into the market. For the past two weeks the day traders were running rampant and the action of the market made no sense at all. The bears have control as we speak. Maybe we are going to get back to where some degree of predictability come back into daily movements of the markets. The Dow is down 234 points with a little over two hours left in the trading day.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007 1:59pm CDT We are working with our Web Design folks to be able to post market charts on the site. Hopefully it will be finished in a week or two. Stay tuned.
Monday, October 29, 2007 11:28am 12.48 pm CDT Monday is starting out to the up side but we don't expect much either up or down until the Fed announces it's stance on interest rates on Wednesday.The street is betting on a quarter point cut. Some even think a half is possible. The problem the Fed is facing is that if they lower rates it will hurt the dollar. If they don't lower rates, the stock market will take a big hit. This leaves investors faced with a similar decision. Should I be out of the market and miss the opportunity or play it safe and wait to see what happens? We feel that a quarter point is already priced into the market and you won't get much of a kicker unless it goes a half point. A half point is sure to hurt the dollar a lot. Time will tell.
Saturday, October 27, 2007 9:58am CDT I was just getting ready to cover the up-coming week when I found that Sy Harding had done it. Here is a reprint from his column. I hope you enjoy it. I’d Really Like to Just Skip Next Week! There are times when it’s fairly easy to see what’s coming on a given day, or given week. You get overbought or oversold conditions, short-term investor sentiment at one extreme or the other, momentum reversal indicators reversed to short-term buy or sell signals, good or bad news overnight, pre-open indicators that look like program trading firms are manipulating them to produce an artificial push one way or the other at the open, monthly strength periods and holiday trading that have quite consistent trading patterns, etc., etc. Next week will not be like that. It’s been a long time since there has been a week with such a concentration of potential market-moving economic reports and events every day, especially coming at a time when the market is so set up for big emotional responses in both directions. Just glance at the home page at www.streetsmartreport.com at the schedule for economic reports next week. Among them Consumer Confidence (so being watched right now as a forecaster of consumer spending), the ADP Employment Report (which has become a closely watched precursor for the big monthly jobs #’s), the Employment Cost Index (which the Fed watches for signs of wage inflation), the so-important first report of 3rd quarter GDP, the Fed’s decision on interest rates, the ISM Mfg Index, Pending Home Sales, which has become as closely watched as the home sales numbers, Factory Orders, Auto Sales, and then on Friday the report with the record of causing more triple-digit moves in one direction or the other by the Dow than any other set of economic numbers, the monthly jobs report (for October). It practically guarantees volatility and day-to-day whipsawing. Then there are a couple of questions related to the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday. The market is obviously 100% sure that one; there will be a rate cut, and two; that a rate cut will send the market soaring up. I agree that it’s almost a sure thing there will be a rate cut. The Fed has to be worried about the banking/credit/housing/slowing economy/locked-up lending/consumer spending/mess. And the only weapon it has is interest rates. But it also has to share the concerns of central bankers around the world regarding the plunging dollar, and how a cut in interest rates will likely send it off the cliff again. There was a time, for several years, when the falling dollar was good. It made imports more expensive and U.S. exports cheaper for foreign buyers. (unfortunately that still wasn’t enough to prevent the record trade deficit). But now the dollar has fallen to an alarming degree that’s raising a whole set of worries for foreign countries holding their reserves in dollars. And with the market acting so enthusiastically over expectations of a rate cut, the Fed must also be concerned about creating another bubble in its efforts to ease the severe effects of the bursting of the real estate bubble. And then there is the possibility no one seems to be considering, that the market’s enthusiasm for a rate cut is setting it up for a reversal, as in ‘buy on the rumor, sell on the news’, or because it will realize that a another rate cut, or five more, will not reverse the serious economic problems.
Friday, October 26, 2007 12:08 CDT Microsoft reported far better earnings than expected and this has given the bulls a lot of reason to put money into tech stocks. Countrywide Financial who started the sub-prime problem reported a bigger loss than they had indicated but said it would be better next quarter and the market seems to believe them. This is the same company who's CEO is being investigated for having sold millions of shares of stock before making the "we have some problems" announcement. That's kind of like putting lipstick on a pig to try to pretty it up for three more months. Burn me once, shame on you, burn me twice, shame on me. Meanwhile the dollar is droping to new lows while oil is setting new highs. In spite of this, the market is having a nice up day across the board. However, there is still 2 1/2 hours before the close.
"Holding the S&P 500 during the last three days of October through the first three days of November has given a positive return during every year of existence of the S&P 500 tracking fund, SPY. The 12 out of 12 winning trades returned an average of +3.3%, with an average drawdown (i.e. maximum loss) of only -0.7% compared to an average gain of +3.6%. That kind of thing shouldn't be ignored."-Jason Geopfert An interesting fact to work over. What makes it so interesting is that it occurs during the exact time frame when porfolio managers are window dressing their portfolios. Most mutual fund companies are on a fiscal year basis that ends on October 31st. They must publish a list of the funds holdings at year end and don't want to show any stocks that were a disaster. An example is WCG (WellCare HealthPlans) whose closing price yesterday was $117 per share and their closing price today will be somewhere in the low fourties. The companies offices were raided this morning by the FBI. As a result, the stock sold off around 63% today. A manager showing he has it in his holdings will look like a fool, so he sells it so it won't appear in his portfolio. That is called "window dressing"
Tuesday, October 23, 2007 12:28 CDT Please note that the final results for the year to date thru yesterday have been posted. Remember that when a signal change is given, it takes one more trading day to implement the trade. For example; a trade signal given after the close on Friday would be made on Monday and would get the closing price. That is if you were using a Mutual Fund. That is how we keep track of our returns.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007 After the close
Thursday, October 10, 2007 11:45 AM CDT Program trading is a daily occurance on Wall Street. When the big players want to move lots of money in and out of the market they will use computer 'programs' designed to find prices that are out of balance and take advantage of that imbalance. In so doing they can make a lot of money for their company. The following is a reference to last weeks market action that I found in an article by Sy Harding. I thought that I would share it with you. Who are the big program-trading firms I often refer to? The top-ten program trading firms by volume last week were; Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Bear Stearns, RBC, and Citgroup. Those ten firms accounted for trading volume of 4.6 billion shares last week. That was 72% of the total of 6.285 billion shares traded on the NYSE for the week.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007 10:00 AM CDT With no economic data due out today the focus will be entirely on earnings. The bulls have to be a little disappointed by the earnings news today. So far no major widely -held stock has been taken to the woodshed for missing estimates. So hope still springs eternal that earnings estimates are too low. For today however, we will see if the bulls still continue to treat bad news as good news.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007 Earnings and interest rates in that order, will be the focus over the next four weeks. There's lots of disagreement among Analysts in their expectations for this coming earnings season. The trend has been for earnings to come in well above expectations. The market is of course, counting on that to happen again. At this point we see no signs of any aggressive moves ahead of those reports. The Fed minutes being released at 2:00 PM may help if there are indications of another cut in rates ahead. What we need to see is double-digit earnings growth.
Monday, October, 8,2007 We have seen four weeks in a row of steady gains in the market. This week has very little economic news to move the markets, so investors will be focusing on earnings reports. In general the street thinks the SP 500 companies will be up an average of +3% from a year ago. For the last 20 quarters the average has exceeded +10%. This appears to make the +3% mark an easy one to beat which would be good for the market going forward. Isn't that a little like a kid telling his parents that his report card is going to have a lot of 'F's and when he brings it home it's all 'C's and 'D's. What a relief. The parents are happy, the kid is happy, and they all go out for ice cream to celebrate. ????? Earnings season will last until mid-November and a total of about 2500 companies will be involved. There are only about 50 to 100 of them that will set the trend of the market.
Monday, October, 1, 2007 The first day of the 4th quarter is starting off with all green on the screen. Well almost all, if you don't include Walgreen. The company missed their earnings expectations by a bit, and they are down 15%. This is a good solid company and at $40 a share its a steal. I already own some and now I will be buying more tomorrow. When you see a quality stock get beat up like this, it's a no-brainer.
Friday, September, 28, 2007 Thursday, September, 27, 2007
It's Friday again, these weeks just fly by. It is also the end of the month and also the end of the third quarter. It will be a day where the market may bounce around due to the quarter ending. Portfolio managers usually have to report their 'holdings' and they like to show the stocks that have done well during the quarter. So they sell the 'dogs' and buy the good stuff. Since they don't have to show the purchase date, it looks like they are better stock pickers than they really are. This is called 'window dressing' and it makes the 'lemons' vanish and lemonade takes its place. Smoke and mirrors in their bag of tricks. It's another way that Wall Street can fool the average investor.
Thursday, October 25, 2007 12:25 CDT At the begining of this week, many 'experts' were calling for a bad week in the market. With only 1 1/2 hours to go before the close, Mr.Market is all green and has been all week so far. So often the so called 'experts' talk to the market instead of shuting up and listening to the market. God gave you one mouth and two ears. My father said that was so you could listen twice as much as you talked. So far the market has ignored bad news and found reasons to go up. Four days gone now and only Friday left for the the market to prove the bears right. I was reading the Sy Harding blog and find it interesting that even he has fallen victim to the "I'm right, the market is wrong" syndrome. Sy has been around a good many years and is big in the seasonal trading. He is an interesting person and he now should be close to a 'get in' call for his system. Mid October to May is the best time to be in the market. He is bearish right now and he keeps trying to prove that he is right and the market is wrong. Like most bears now, they like to talk the talk but they are all afraid to put their money where their mouth is.
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